Global commodity prices are projected to hit a six-year low in 2026, creating ripple effects that will touch every business—from small local enterprises to multinational corporations. While headlines often focus on falling oil or declining coffee and cocoa markets, the broader implications are far-reaching. Understanding these trends is critical for companies navigating a shifting economic landscape.
Why the Focus on Oil Matters
The World Bank’s forecast of a global oil glut is not just an energy story—it is a central axis point influencing multiple industries. Brent crude is expected to fall from $68 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026. Energy costs shape transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and agriculture. Lower prices can reduce operating expenses and improve margins, but sectors tied to oil production, refining, and petrochemicals face revenue pressure and potential investment challenges. This focus exists because energy prices dictate the cost structure for nearly every industry, affecting pricing, supply chains, and investment decisions.
Implications Across Industries
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) can benefit from lower fuel and food prices, reducing operating costs for SMEs in transport, retail, and food services. However, volatile agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer—which could spike 21%—may squeeze farmers and agribusinesses, reducing profitability despite lower commodity prices for end products. Cheaper energy provides manufacturing and industrial companies an opportunity to reinvest savings into technology, automation, and workforce development. Meanwhile, base metals like copper and aluminum, essential for emerging technologies such as AI infrastructure and electric vehicles, may experience selective price pressures. Falling commodities ease inflation and can support consumer purchasing power in import-dependent countries, stimulating demand. Yet prolonged low prices may discourage investment in commodity-producing regions, impacting local economies and supply chain stability. Gold and silver remain attractive safe-haven assets, which could influence investor behavior and capital flows globally. Companies with commodity-linked investments may benefit or face challenges depending on portfolio alignment.
Understanding the Axes of Impact
Commodity shifts affect businesses through several critical points: energy costs drive transportation, production, and trade expenses; agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, crop yields, and supply chain stability directly affect the food and beverage industries; precious and base metals influence finance, technology, and infrastructure; and geopolitical or weather risks can reverse trends quickly, impacting pricing and availability. Even companies not directly tied to commodities feel the effects through consumer prices, investment flows, and operational costs.
Opportunities and Risks
Businesses can use this period to strategically strengthen their position by taking advantage of lower energy prices to improve margins or invest in innovation, monitoring key commodity inputs to mitigate risk, exploring opportunities in regions or industries where low prices may enable expansion, and diversifying suppliers, adopting greener energy options, and investing in technology for resilience.
A Question for Business Leaders
If falling commodity prices offer both relief and uncertainty, how could businesses, governments, and investors co-create a global framework that ensures long-term stability, promotes efficient production, and supports equitable growth—so that price swings benefit economies broadly rather than creating winners and losers?